Football Friday, week 5: High school football predictions (plus Alabama, Auburn and Georgia)

I would guess that the outcome of about 70 percent of high school football games are a foregone conclusion. In those 70 percent of games one team is clearly superior to the other. Barring a satellite falling out of space and breaking up into a bunch of little pieces in the atmosphere and then those little pieces landing directly on the ACLs of all of the better team’s best players, the superior team is going to win the game. That’s just the nature of high school football.

The other 30 percent of games fall under three categories: Complete upsets, where an inferior team beats a better team (this is the rarest of them all); evenly matched games between teams that aren’t so great; and evenly matched games between good teams.

I have been to four high school football games this year, and I have intentionally sought out games in that third category. I have done this because I have been in this business long enough to know that the games in the 70 percent are boooooring, the complete upsets are almost impossible to see coming, and the good games between bad teams usually don’t mean much beyond the campuses of those two schools.

Give me high stakes, high quality football where both sides of the stadium are packed and the outcome is unknown. That’s what turns this sportswriter’s gears on Friday nights.

Fortunately for me, of the four games I’ve been to, I’ve managed to find three high-quality, evenly matched games out of those four. Those three games featured six teams that will almost certainly be a factor in their respective classifications’ playoffs, and in all three of them the outcome was in doubt well into the fourth quarter.

I believe there will be another such game tonight down in Wadley, and, lo and behold, that’s exactly where I’ll be. Read on for more on that game.

But first!

Tim is a genius…

I still haven’t missed more than one pick in any single week this year. Also, I nailed the description of the Auburn-Arkansas game before it happened. I’m starting to understand the ebbs and flows of Auburn’s mood swings, I think because it reminds me so much of how Georgia used to be under Mark Richt. This is not a good thing.

…and an idiot

File the Handley loss to Childersburg—my first incorrect high school pick of the season—under the category of “complete upset” mentioned above. I never saw that one coming, and I’m pretty sure that if Handley played Childersburg nine more times this year they’d win all nine.

Picks record

Last week: 7-1

Season: 28-3

RCHS at Woodland

It’s the Grocery Bowl and once again one team’s buggy will leave the stadium very full, and the other team’s will have nothing but Ramen Noodles and a half-eaten pack of baloney. (I’m not sure if that analogy translates, so what I’m saying is that this game probably won’t be close. But one of my favorite things about Pat Prestridge is that he almost never runs up the score on anybody.)

RCHS 35, Woodland 7

Central at Jasper

Jasper is on the northeast side of Birmingham, so by the time this column goes public the Central Volunteers are probably already on the bus to get there. Jasper is coached by Bryan Moore, who was the head man at Eufaula the last three years. Eufaula beat Central each of the past two seasons. Which probably means nothing because Danny Horn was not the coach at Central for either of those games, but I needed something to connect these two teams. I like the way Central’s run defense is playing, but offensively the Vols really have to figure out a way to hang onto the football. I’m guessing the Vols overcome a slow start to come back from Birmingham a winner.

Central 28, Jasper 21

Handley at Lanett

The word is that Tae Snead won’t be able to play tonight for Handley, and the last thing you need when you’re playing an extremely athletic team like Lanett is to lose one of your best overall athletes. I just don’t like this matchup for Handley. It’s difficult to find a place where the Tigers have an advantage over a Lanett team that is strong up front, and fast in the skill spots. It will be gut-check time for Handley if the Tigers are going to keep this one respectable.

Lanett 40, Handley 27

Ranburne at Wadley

And now on to what I think may end up being one of the best games of the season around here. You have a Ranburne team that just passed its first big test of the season with an overtime road win against Cleveland. That win propelled the purple Bulldogs into class 2A’s top 10 for the first time since they finished at No. 7 in the final poll of 2015.

Then you have a Wadley team that gave top-ranked Lanett all it could handle for about 40 minutes and has physically dominated every other team it has played.

Ranburne quarterback Josh Ralston has been playing out of his mind through the first four weeks. He has completed over 75 percent of his passes for over 500 yards and seven touchdowns and has rushed for 339 yards and five more scores. He is part of a prolific 1-2 punch on offense for Ranburne alongside junior running back Christian Smith (over 600 yards from scrimmage, 8 touchdowns).

That duo will get its biggest test yet against this Wadley defense, which, in four games, has allowed just two touchdowns by players not named Kristian Story.

This game really feels like a tossup to me, which usually means that turnovers and/or weird plays will have a huge impact on the game. Wadley has had a knack for creating those types of plays on defense, so I’ll give them the slight edge at home.

Wadley 27, Ranburne 22

LaFayette at Alabama

Let’s face it. The only real drama that will come from this game is if Jalen Hurts takes the field and burns his year of eligibility. I say he will, which really makes no sense to me. The only reason Hurts should play again is if Tua gets injured, and there’s little chance of that happening when he doesn’t have to play for more than two quarters a game. By that time, it doesn’t matter who the second quarterback is. They could put 75-year-old Joe Namath out there and it still wouldn’t change the outcome.

Alabama 70, Lafayette 10

Southern Miss at Auburn

This is Auburn’s last cupcake until after the Georgia game (unless you count Tennessee as a cupcake. And I do.) and the Tigers have to play Mississippi State next week. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Auburn will underwhelm in this game, win by about 25 points and leave all of its fans dreading those five straight SEC games.

Tennessee at Georgia

The word on the street is that Georgia is looking to impress the busload of recruits that will be at this game by mercilessly pounding Tennessee into the ground. Georgia is favored by over 30 points, but something tells me Tennessee will keep this one “close.”

Georgia 48, Tennessee 20