Football Friday, Week 7: High school football predictions (plus Auburn, Alabama and Georgia)
Handley’s 30-14 loss to Lincoln last night was pretty much a snapshot of the unpredictable nature of Class 4A’s Region 4.
One week after losing to perennial doormat Holtville, Lincoln rebounded for a convincing win over Handley and now finds itself in a tie for first place in the region with Talladega. Lincoln owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Talladega, so if everything remains as is in the standings Lincoln would be the region champions.
But don’t count on everything remaining as is (hence the use of the word “unpredictable” at the beginning of this column). Handley played last night’s game without its best running back (Devontae Houston) and its most productive receiver (Jared Sears). So if you’re looking for at least one reason why the Handley offense was so sluggish between its first and last drives, that’s a good place to start.
Lincoln’s defense deserves its share of credit as well. The Golden Bears’ starting unit gave up a touchdown drive on Handley’s opening possession and basically allowed zilcho after that. Handley’s second touchdown came on the final drive of the game as the Tigers took full advantage of the Lincoln defensive backups.
Coaches shy away from making excuses based on injuries, and Handley head man Larry Strain is no exception. So I’ll make that excuse for him.
What I saw from Handley when it was at mostly full strength in the first half of the Elmore County game last week was a dangerous offense that can hit you from a lot of different angles.
Bootsie Lyons ran for a long touchdown. Houston caught a screen pass and then carved up the Elmore defense for another long score. Even after Houston went out with his knee injury, Montavious Meadows make a beautiful diving catch of a Lyons deep ball and then polished off the drive with a 12-yard run before he too got hurt. (And while Meadows played last night, he was clearly not back to full speed.)
So you can say what you want about the next man up and all that, but those starters are the starters for a reason, and a healthy Handley is a much more dangerous Handley than the one that played last night.
The word is that Houston will miss at least one more game, which works out well for next week because Handley plays last-place Leeds (how the mighty have fallen, huh?).
But if Handley is at full strength for its region finale against Talladega the Tigers will be in good shape to finish as high as second place (the region championship looks like a long shot right now) and get a home game in the first round of the playoffs. They’re good enough to do just that, but if we’ve learned anything about this region this year it’s that it is definitely (say it with me) unpredictable.
Tim is a genius…
Mississippi State over Auburn. Nailed it.
…And an idiot
Missed a high school game for the second straight week, as Mortimer Jordan pulled of the last-second stunner against Central.
Picks record
Overall: 41-5
I’m going to be honest here (when am I not?). This week’s remaining high school games either a) don’t have a lot riding on them, or b) aren’t exactly evenly matched games, or c) both a and b.
But keep an eye on these games because they’re going to set up what will be a very big week next week for almost everyone.
Ranburne at West End Walnut Grove
Possibly the best team in the region (Ranburne) playing possibly the worst team in the region. Also, Ranburne could play the game with Muppet versions of themselves, and it still wouldn’t change the fact that they’ll be at least the number two team in the region and that next week’s game against Ohatchee will decide the region championship.
Ranburne 41, West End 0
St. Clair County at Clay Central
This is the calm before the storm for Central, and it’s their last regular season home game of the season. The Vols should win this one to set up a very important final two region games on the road (against Sylacauga and Center Point). The real drama for Central starts next week.
Central 40, St. Clair County 14
Cleveland at Woodland
If Woodland somehow figured out a way to pull off the homecoming upset in this one it would put the Bobcats in prime position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Unfortunately I think those goals will have to be put off for another week. The silver lining is that a loss in this game will not end Woodland’s playoff hopes.
Cleveland 35, Woodland 20
Wellborn at RCHS
This has a little bit of a trap game feel to it. RCHS is coming off of a hard-fought win over Weaver and has to play first-place Saks next week. Wellborn is no slouch. They own a win over the same Lincoln team that just beat Handley last night. And Wellborn only lost to Weaver by one point. So RCHS can’t sleepwalk through this one, but I think they still get the job done.
RCHS 38, Wellborn 19
Tennessee at Auburn
Tennessee has lost 11 straight SEC games going back to a win over Missouri in November of 2016, and it would be soooo 2018 schizo Auburn to lose this game at home and end that streak for the Volunteers. It’s tempting to pick the upset here, but I can’t do it. I think the good half of the schizos shows up for about a half, and that will be enough to secure the win.
Auburn 27, Tennessee 17
Missouri at Alabama
The only real drama in this game is whether or not the student section will ruin the return of Dixieland Delight to the Bryant-Denny game day experience by dropping multiple F-bombs throughout the song. My guess is no, just because a) no one cares about Missouri and b) most of the student section will be long gone by the time they fire up that song.
Alabama 60, Missouri 20
Georgia at LSU
As a Georgia fan, this is the first time this year that I’ve been truly concerned about whether the Bulldogs will win. South Carolina was supposed to be an early test (it wasn’t), then Missouri was a trendy pick to beat the Dawgs (they didn’t). But this is different. This is a solid LSU team at home after a loss to Florida against a Georgia team that is starting to get a little too deep into its bench after a rash of injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. Georgia is still the more talented team, which will be the case for every game this year unless they play Alabama, so I think, maybe they still win. But it could be a barn burner.
Georgia 35, LSU 31
Football Friday
